* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 81 73 65 52 43 41 35 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 81 73 65 52 43 41 35 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 85 79 72 61 53 49 47 43 38 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 29 33 38 40 27 17 8 28 41 53 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 5 4 2 -2 6 9 10 10 7 6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 20 27 38 43 30 19 246 273 273 283 280 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.7 25.9 24.6 23.3 22.6 22.1 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 130 124 116 106 98 93 89 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 48 52 48 55 47 41 41 37 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 14 12 14 14 17 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -90 -104 -84 -68 -73 -69 -91 -129 -101 -54 -9 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -11 -14 -9 -18 -7 -4 21 35 0 -18 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 5 0 4 0 12 0 -10 -8 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1372 1367 1390 1416 1624 1976 1854 1827 2021 1687 1273 960 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.9 27.0 29.5 31.6 34.0 35.5 36.1 36.6 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.6 49.9 50.3 50.4 50.5 49.6 47.1 43.8 39.3 34.0 28.3 23.7 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 9 14 17 20 23 23 21 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 30 27 25 17 9 3 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -35. -40. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -24. -19. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -12. -14. -12. -17. -20. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -25. -38. -47. -49. -55. -59. -67. -73. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 22.6 49.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 831.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 1.1% .1% .1% .1% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 2( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 81 73 65 52 43 41 35 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 75 67 54 45 43 37 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 78 70 57 48 46 40 36 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 59 50 48 42 38 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 58 49 47 41 37 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 63 54 52 46 42 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT