* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/10/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 53 44 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 53 44 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 70 67 62 55 48 35 25 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 40 43 47 51 50 52 39 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 10 7 4 8 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 255 249 243 244 246 246 252 234 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 136 131 131 131 130 126 125 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.5 -49.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 50 47 43 38 31 23 22 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 30 28 26 19 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 83 72 68 65 50 12 -15 -27 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 55 29 33 14 -21 -2 7 16 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -20 -53 -47 -45 -36 -13 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 120 289 458 608 713 938 1180 1303 1496 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.2 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 79.5 77.8 76.1 74.1 72.0 68.5 65.2 61.5 58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 18 17 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 48 37 24 17 17 15 13 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -24. -28. -29. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -20. -27. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -17. -26. -46. -61. -72. -81. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.9 79.5
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 63.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.52 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.22 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.36 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142024 MILTON 10/10/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/10/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 61 53 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 70 69 64 56 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 51 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT