* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LESLIE AL132024 10/12/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 41 40 37 35 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 41 40 37 35 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 15 3 14 29 45 57 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 9 11 3 5 4 -4 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 29 324 246 247 262 280 304 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.6 24.8 24.1 22.5 21.7 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 115 109 104 94 88 91 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.1 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 3 3 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 52 54 52 47 51 51 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 13 15 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -66 -68 -77 -100 -126 -109 -20 39 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -32 -3 16 31 45 64 16 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 7 0 -1 23 10 -16 -3 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1783 1913 1790 1743 1732 1990 1551 1273 819 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.4 30.2 32.0 33.5 35.0 36.9 37.3 36.3 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 48.8 46.6 44.4 41.9 39.4 32.9 27.1 23.6 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 21 26 26 26 27 25 18 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -10. -18. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.4 48.8
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.32 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.6% 5.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.2% .5% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/2024 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 41 40 37 35 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 42 42 41 38 36 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 37 35 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT