* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OSCAR AL162024 10/20/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 71 69 64 58 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 70 71 60 53 47 44 39 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 70 71 61 54 47 47 44 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 15 21 24 25 35 39 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 7 12 7 6 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 319 304 310 305 298 291 292 265 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 167 167 164 161 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 42 43 46 49 50 52 53 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 26 39 48 57 70 69 86 79 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -19 -18 -32 -33 2 12 32 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 6 7 10 11 3 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 34 11 -19 -8 -11 64 183 272 377 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.7 22.7 23.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 74.1 74.6 75.0 75.3 75.7 75.7 75.2 74.3 72.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 65 66 68 68 68 62 57 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.6 74.1
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.42 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.46 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 15.0% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.6% 5.0% 4.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.1% 6.8% 5.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 3.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 60 53 47 44 39 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 70 69 58 51 45 42 37 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 53 50 45 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 54 51 46 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT