* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KRISTY EP122024 10/24/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 135 140 141 138 131 114 98 81 66 49 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 135 140 141 138 131 114 98 81 66 49 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 135 137 134 128 121 107 93 76 57 41 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 4 6 11 16 28 37 45 56 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 0 -1 3 11 11 7 1 -8 -11 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 347 347 350 186 193 209 183 190 202 208 211 227 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 28.2 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 145 147 142 135 123 119 111 110 111 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 59 60 60 60 57 51 41 31 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 27 27 28 28 27 25 20 15 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 35 29 23 20 22 34 15 8 17 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 -3 -11 7 22 26 91 70 75 48 0 -18 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 0 0 4 11 22 25 10 3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1179 1282 1398 1491 1573 1686 1757 1783 1790 1867 1996 2038 1882 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.6 20.6 21.3 20.9 20.3 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 116.4 118.0 119.6 121.0 122.4 124.8 127.2 129.3 130.8 132.3 133.8 135.3 136.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 13 14 13 10 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 22 20 16 12 11 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -25. -36. -46. -57. -66. -73. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -18. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 8. 4. -1. -7. -9. -8. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. -5. -11. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 3. -4. -21. -37. -54. -69. -86. -102. -120. -133. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 640.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 64.0% 41.3% 32.4% 36.3% 18.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 21.7% 13.8% 10.8% 12.1% 6.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 11.3% 6.9% 5.4% 6.0% 3.0% .6% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##