* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KRISTY EP122024 10/27/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 43 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 43 37 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 43 47 51 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 -5 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 214 222 221 218 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 100 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 41 33 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -21 -28 -19 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 28 26 7 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 21 21 18 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1613 1643 1669 1710 1752 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.0 130.5 131.0 131.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.7 129.5
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/27/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.14 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/27/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##