* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHTEEN AL182024 11/04/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 61 68 70 72 63 54 46 42 39 36 32
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 61 63 65 67 58 49 41 37 34 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 49 53 54 50 43 38 35 32 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 3 3 4 11 15 22 17 18 19 23 28 46 48 77
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 2 2 15 6 2 -1 1 6 -8
SHEAR DIR 227 258 276 214 272 162 203 225 256 279 268 258 252 235 245 269 273
SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 30.0 29.7 28.9 28.7 27.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.1 27.0 25.7 24.7 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 166 170 165 151 147 127 137 139 136 123 123 111 103 100
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 4 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 75 74 72 69 61 55 50 46 43 38 32 27 26 20
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 20 16 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 95 108 107 112 114 87 80 42 38 30 13 -16 -10 -44 -73 -82 -86
200 MB DIV 101 46 66 60 62 64 68 62 28 -10 -3 36 14 26 -3 -13 -29
700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -2 6 2 5 7 4 5 10 7 0 12 0 38
LAND (KM) 380 343 260 165 78 193 66 31 241 408 351 266 220 138 48 -144 -436
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.4 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.5 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.1 77.3 77.8 78.3 79.9 82.1 83.8 85.3 86.6 87.6 88.6 89.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 13 14 11 9 7 5 5 5 7 9 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 68 77 78 70 72 78 70 65 38 33 31 20 14 11 3 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 29. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 7. 2. -6. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 31. 38. 40. 42. 33. 24. 16. 12. 9. 6. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 76.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 17.6% 11.2% 7.7% 5.0% 12.8% 18.4% 26.9%
Logistic: 3.1% 16.7% 7.0% 4.1% 1.5% 11.6% 28.6% 20.1%
Bayesian: 1.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 3.5% 6.9% 2.2%
Consensus: 2.2% 12.3% 6.3% 4.0% 2.2% 9.3% 17.9% 16.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 20.0% 23.0% 6.0%
SDCON: 2.1% 17.1% 7.6% 3.5% 1.6% 14.6% 20.4% 11.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/2024 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 44 53 61 63 65 67 58 49 41 37 34 28 27
18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 50 58 60 62 64 55 46 38 34 31 25 24
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 52 54 56 58 49 40 32 28 25 19 18
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 42 44 46 48 39 30 22 18 15 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT