* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RAFAEL AL182024 11/07/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 87 85 83 76 70 62 53 50 46 47 47 48 48 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 90 88 87 85 83 76 70 62 53 50 46 47 47 48 48 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 90 89 87 84 81 73 67 62 56 51 48 47 47 48 49 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 26 15 9 12 11 10 7 13 14 8 3 9 5 20 14 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 7 10 9 11 13 16 12 11 12 4 6 4 9 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 298 308 274 273 284 253 259 223 266 234 255 250 251 219 244 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 137 136 137 129 128 129 130 130 132 131 133 137 137 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 4 7 7 9 7 8 6 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 52 50 46 48 45 40 31 25 20 17 18 17 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 23 23 21 21 20 18 16 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 24 19 10 4 10 3 -5 3 -12 -5 -4 -18 -6 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 9 29 22 15 15 15 9 12 6 -21 -18 -7 -16 -26 -17 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 7 0 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 -13 0 -14 0 -8 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 201 256 320 328 334 372 396 441 440 441 437 433 411 391 312 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.7 86.5 87.5 88.5 89.8 90.9 92.0 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.4 93.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 7 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 37 33 24 20 21 19 22 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -32. -35. -37. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -24. -26. -28. -31. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -28. -37. -40. -44. -43. -43. -42. -42. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.3 84.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.30 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.03 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 10.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.3% 4.4% 3.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS: 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 4.1% 3.2% 2.5% .7% .6% .2% .1% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 RAFAEL 11/07/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 9( 28) 5( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 87 85 83 76 70 62 53 50 46 47 47 48 48 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 84 77 71 63 54 51 47 48 48 49 49 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 75 69 61 52 49 45 46 46 47 47 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 71 65 57 48 45 41 42 42 43 43 DIS DIS
NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 58 50 41 38 34 35 35 36 36 DIS DIS
IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 65 59 51 42 39 35 36 36 37 37 DIS DIS
IN 12HR 90 88 87 78 72 68 62 54 45 42 38 39 39 40 40 DIS DIS