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Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023
 
The intensity of Bret is decreasing as the system moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea.  The low-level center is now fully exposed
and deep convection is minimal.  However, there is a relatively
large area of showers well to the east of the center that is
lingering over portions of the Lesser Antilles.  An ASCAT pass from
earlier today showed peak winds between 40-45 kt, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory.  This estimate is
also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Bret is currently experiencing about 20 kt of vertical wind shear, 
and since the shear is anticipated to increase, continued weakening 
is expected.  All of the models show a steady decline in Bret's 
strength, and the new forecast is similar to the previous one.  
Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday.
 
The tropical storm continues to move quickly westward at 17 kt on 
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This motion should 
continue during the next couple of days taking Bret across the 
eastern and central Caribbean Sea just north of the ABC Islands.  
The NHC track forecast is again a touch to the south of the previous 
one and remains on the fast side of the model guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.1N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 13.1N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 13.2N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 13.2N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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