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Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023
 
Bret is currently comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds with occasional puffs of convection to the
northeast and east of the center.  More widespread cloudiness and
convection associated with the storm are occuring well to the east
of the center over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.  This poorly-
organized structure is due to the effects of 25 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear.  Just-received reports from an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a central pressure near 1005 
mb, along with SFMR and flight-level winds supporting an initial 
intensity of 45 kt.
 
Continued moderate to strong shear should cause Bret to weaken, and
the global models forecast the system to degenerate into a trough
or tropical wave between 24-36 h.  The intensity forecast follows
this guidance and shows the system dissipating after 24 h.
 
The initial motion is 270/16 on the south side of a low- to
mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue until the
system dissipates.  The new NHC forecast track is similar to, but a
little south of, the previous track.  After dissipation, the
remnants of Bret should move quickly westward and reach Central
America sometime on Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 12.9N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 13.0N  70.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 13.2N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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