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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

The low-level center of Cindy remains located on the northwestern 
edge of a burst of deep convection, although night infrared 
satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation is 
becoming less well defined. The latest satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB are lower than the previous advisory, 
and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 45 kt. 

Cindy continues to move towards the northwest with an initial 
motion of 320/18 kt. Cindy should move generally in that direction 
with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days 
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is 
similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids. 

The intensity forecast is high confidence in the near term with 
strong shear continuing to cause Cindy to weaken during the next 
day or two. This will likely result in the cyclone degenerating 
into a trough or broad low, and the current NHC prediction is for 
dissipation in 48 hours, perhaps conservatively. However, there are 
some global models suggesting that the remnants of Cindy could find 
an area of lighter shear and interact with an upper-level trough 
that would allow the system to regenerate in several days.  While 
this is a plausible solution, the system will likely be over cooler 
SSTs at that time within only a small area of potentially conducive 
upper-level wind conditions.  Thus, regeneration will not be 
included in the official forecast at this time, but this scenario 
will be continue to be monitored.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 20.3N  57.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 21.9N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 23.7N  60.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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