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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023
 
Visible satellite imagery this morning continues to show a 
partially exposed center, with persistent deep convection displaced 
slightly to the north and east of the depression.  Based on a blend 
of objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial 
intensity estimate for this advisory remains 30 kt. 

Although deep convection has persisted this morning, deep-layer 
westerly shear is expected to increase to near 40 kt today and 
remain steady during the next 24 hours. Further, dry mid-level air 
to the north of the system will likely inhibit well-organized and 
sustained deep convection. Global models and ensemble systems are in 
agreement that intensification of the depression is unlikely, and 
thus the official forecast has the depression as a remnant low in 
24 h and dissipated in 36 h.
 
The depression has continued moving slightly south of due west this 
morning, and it is expected to turn slightly north of due west 
today, with this general motion expected to continue until 
dissipation occurs. Given the continued motion toward the
west-southwest, the official track forecast lies slightly to the 
south of the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 16.8N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 16.9N  55.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 17.2N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 
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