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Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023
 
Gert barely qualifies a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite imagery 
indicates it still has a well-enough defined circulation sustained 
by a small area of deep convection that is displaced east of Gert's 
surface center. That said, during the few hours since sunrise, the 
tropical storm's circulation appears to have become stretched as 
convection has waned. The initial intensity estimate is 35 kt based 
on recent satellite estimates and ASCAT data last night, but new 
ASCAT data is expected very soon that will provide better 
information about the current maximum winds.
 
Strong upper-level winds associated with an upper-level low to the 
north of Gert and outflow from the more robust Franklin to its west 
ought to prevent Gert's convection from getting better organized. 
Most dynamical models continue to indicate that Gert will open into 
a trough within the next 12-36 h. While the tiny tropical cyclone 
has been quite persistent thus far, its hard to envision Gert 
lasting much longer in its current environment. Although the NHC 
forecast maintains Gert for a little longer, it could realistically 
dissipate at any time.
 
The initial motion of the tropical cyclone remains westward at a
slightly slower forward pace than overnight. Gert (or its remnants)
will likely turn west-northwestward or northwestward by tonight
until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is very close to
the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 16.9N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 17.2N  58.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 17.8N  59.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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