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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023
 
Deep convection continues to burst near and to the east of the
center of Franklin. Earlier NOAA aircraft fixes and more recent
microwave satellite data indicate that the center of Franklin is
located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to
moderate westerly shear. The latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB is
T3.0 (45 kt) and SAB provided a data T-number of T2.5 (35 kt).  A 
very recently arriving ASCAT pass revealed peak winds of 40-45 kt, 
therefore the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt. 

Franklin is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A slower
westward to west-northwest motion is forecast overnight.  By late
Monday, a deepening trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to
cause Franklin to turn northwestward and then northward toward
Hispaniola.  The tropical storm is forecast to pass over that
island Tuesday night, and then move off the north coast of
Hispaniola by early Wednesday.  After that time, the amplifying
trough is forecast to turn Franklin northeastward.  There is still 
a fair amount of spread on where the northward turn will take place 
and the official forecast remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 

Franklin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate 
westerly shear during the next couple of days, but it is not likely 
to prevent some modest strengthening before Franklin reaches the 
southern coast of Hispaniola. Interaction with the mountainous 
terrain of Hispaniola is expected to cause some weakening.  Once 
Franklin moves into the western Atlantic, most of the intensity 
guidance suggests additional strengthening is likely and the NHC 
forecast follows suit. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of 
the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN multi-model 
consensus aid.  

Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm warning 
has been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.
 
2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 14.9N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 15.0N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 15.3N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 16.2N  71.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 18.1N  71.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  23/1200Z 20.0N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  24/0000Z 21.9N  69.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 24.3N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 26.2N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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