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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023
 
Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A 
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening 
and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible 
multiple surface centers.  Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on 
satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the 
storm, near the mid-level center.  The initial intensity will 
remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher 
TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates.  A NOAA G-IV mission should 
hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight.
 
The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for 
much of the day.  There is the potential that the center may try to 
reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the 
mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution.  Eventually,  
mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should 
allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and 
then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is 
shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a 
little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of 
the center to the northeast.
 
Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear, which is disrupting the cyclone's organization. SHIPS 
guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next 
12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it 
reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there 
will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After 
Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the 
forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast, 
then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence 
given all the different environmental factors and land interaction, 
but lies near the corrected consensus aids.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy 
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as 
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and 
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into 
Wednesday.
 
2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 14.5N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 14.9N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.3N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 18.1N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 20.1N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 21.6N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 22.6N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 23.7N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 25.9N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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