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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023
 
Franklin's cloud pattern continues to become gradually better 
organized with a large convective band evident over the eastern 
semicircle of the circulation.  There is still some westerly shear 
over the system, and most of the deep convection is confined to the 
northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm.  Franklin appears to 
be producing high-level anticyclonic outflow which is being undercut 
by westerlies just below the outflow level.  Subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and most of the 
objective estimates are in this range as well.  A scatterometer 
overpass from several hours ago indicated maximum winds near 40 kt.  
The current intensity is set at 45 kt.

Although the center remains difficult to locate, satellite center 
fixes from TAFB and SAB and continuity suggest a motion of about 
010/9 kt.  Franklin is moving through a weakness in the mid-level 
subtropical ridge.  During the next couple of days, the cyclone is 
forecast to turn toward the east-northeast and move along the 
northwestern side of a mid-level anticyclone, and south of a 
higher-latitude trough.  In 3 to 5 days, as the trough lifts out and 
a mid-level ridge to the west and northwest of Franklin builds 
slightly, the system is expected to turn northward and 
north-northwestward.  The official track forecast is again close to 
the HCCA consensus and very similar to the previous advisory's 
prediction.

Land interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola today are likely 
to disrupt Franklin's circulation, and the amount of weakening 
shown by the NHC short-term intensity forecast may be conservative. 
After the cyclone moves over the Atlantic, strengthening is 
anticipated.  However, the global models show significant shear 
associated with an upper-level cyclone over the southwestern 
Atlantic near 70W in 3-5 days, and this is also indicated in the 
SHIPS guidance.  Because of this, the official intensity forecast 
is near the low end of the model guidance and similar to the LGEM 
prediction.  This is just slightly higher than the previous 
official forecast.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of 
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce 
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban 
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola 
today.
 
2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the 
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in 
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within 
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 17.4N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0600Z 21.1N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 22.2N  69.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 22.7N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 23.0N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 23.3N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 25.8N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 29.5N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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