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Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023
 
Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Franklin this 
morning and found Franklin a little stronger, with the pressure down 
a few millibars to 971mb. Latest visible and infrared satellite 
imagery show an eye developing with a cold core of deep convection 
wrapping around the center. The aircraft reconnaissance reported 
that the eye was closed in the most recent vortex fix. They also 
reported a concentric band forming around the eyewall, which may be 
the stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite estimates from 
TAFB and SAB, remained steady this advisory. However, given the 
improved satellite depiction in the last few hours and data from 
the hurricane hunters, the initial intensity is raised to 85kt. 
 
Environmental conditions are fairly favorable during the next few 
days, with very warm sea surface temperature and decreasing 
deep-layer wind shear. Steady strengthening is forecast and 
Franklin could become a major hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. 
The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous one and 
lies near the consensus aids, HCCA and IVCN. Weakening is forecast 
in about 3 to 4 days, as Franklin encounters increased shear and 
moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast to 
increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.

Franklin has continued to move northwestward at 7kt this morning. 
The near-term forecast has been nudged slightly west of the 
previous advisory. A broad high-pressure ridge to the east of 
Franklin will steer the system more north-northwestward and 
northward the next couple of days. In the longer range of the 
forecast period, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. 
east coast and most of the guidance has Franklin becoming 
captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward 
motion to the northeast. The main exception is the ECMWF, which is 
the furthest right once again this forecast cycle. The official 
forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, in the middle of 
the guidance suite. The NHC forecast track still has the core of 
Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, but interest there 
should continue to monitor the latest NHC forecast. By Day 5 or 
just beyond the forecast period, Franklin may begin to interact 
with the upper trough and begin an extratropical transition. 
 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 25.1N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 26.0N  70.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 27.4N  70.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 28.9N  70.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 30.4N  70.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 31.9N  69.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 33.4N  67.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 36.6N  60.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 40.6N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
 
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