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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023
 
The depression re-developed a larger area of deep convection early
this morning, with signs of lightning activity associated with that
convection in GLM data. While this will allow the depression to
maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone for a while
longer, satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still only
support an intensity of around 30 kt.
 
The depression continues to meander, having drifted eastward for
the past several hours.  It is still expected to turn generally
northward later today, albeit at a very slow pace. Models suggest
it could finally begin to accelerate northward by Thursday, but
this acceleration will likely cause the system to open into a
trough. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model
consensus.
 
There has been no change to the intensity forecast thinking. The 
depression still has another day or so to briefly strengthen and 
become a very short-lived tropical storm, but most of the intensity 
guidance does not support that scenario. Instead, it is becoming 
more likely that the depression will succumb to a combination of dry 
air and shear and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day 
or so. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 28.2N  52.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 28.4N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 29.2N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 30.6N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 32.7N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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