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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023
 
The depression had a large burst of convection this morning. 
Scatterometer missed the system this morning, so we did 
not get any data of the wind field with this convective burst. A 
blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are 
still around 30 kt, and the intensity is held at 30 kt for this 
advisory cycle.
 
The depression continues to meander over the central Atlantic.  It 
is expected to slowly move northward later today, and then a little 
faster northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is slower in 
short-term than the previous forecast, given the initial slow 
motion, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.
 
The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast. 
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived 
tropical storm, but most of the guidance keep the system as a 
depression. As the system moves northward it will encounter an 
environment of dry air and increased shear. The depression is 
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 28.3N  52.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 28.6N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 29.5N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 31.1N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 33.3N  51.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 
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