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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023
 
Jose is producing bursts of deep convection near and over the 
estimated center position this morning. Overnight microwave data 
suggest the surface center was pulled slightly eastward by an 
increase in convection during the diurnal maximum period. The 
various satellite intensity estimates range from 32-45 kt this 
morning, with the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and 
TAFB (45 kt) higher than the objective UW-CIMSS estimates which are 
around 35 kt. A timely ASCAT-B pass over Jose shows believable wind 
vectors up to 32 kt in the eastern semicircle, which supports 
holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The storm is moving northward at about 6 kt. An acceleration toward
the north is expected during the next day or so as the small system
gets caught in the broader cyclonic circulation associated with
Hurricane Franklin. Deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over
Jose as it accelerates northward toward Franklin, but Jose appears
likely to maintain some tropical-storm-force winds in its eastern
semicircle due to its faster northward motion. There have been no
notable changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast, and Jose is
now expected to be absorbed by Franklin in 36 h, in agreement with
the latest global models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 29.7N  52.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 31.4N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 34.4N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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