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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023
 
The core of Lee briefly moved across Long Island in Western Nova 
Scotia within the past hour or so. Satellite images and surface 
observations indicate that the center is now over the Bay of Fundy. 
Rain bands continue to spread across portions of Maine, New 
Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as seen in radar images. A pair of ASCAT 
passes from several ago showed that Lee remains very large, but the 
core winds have decreased below hurricane-force.  Considering some 
undersampling of that data, the initial intensity was lowered to 60 
kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory.
 
The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today as it 
moves near the west coast of Nova Scotia.  However, the storm is 
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate late tonight and 
Sunday, bringing the system across the Canadian Maritimes.  Little 
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.
 
Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause
steady weakening during the next day or so.  The global models are
in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring
across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada, and will
continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas.  The strong winds are leading to downed trees and power 
outages.
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and New Brunswick.
 
3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola,  and Puerto
Rico through Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 44.5N  66.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/0600Z 46.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1800Z 49.0N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0600Z 51.5N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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