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Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023
 
Margot has continued to become better organized over the past
several hours.  The eye is becoming a little more distinct, and
inner-core convection has intensified somewhat, with cooling cloud
tops.  Convective banding features are evident, particularly over
the southeastern portion of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow
is well defined over the northern semicircle of the system.  The
current intensity estimate is now 70 kt which is a blend of
subjective Dvorak classification estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Recent center fixes show a slight rightward wobble in the track but
the longer-term motion estimate is generally northward or 010/10 kt. 
Margot is expected to move northward to north-northwestward between 
two subtropical high pressure areas over the next few days.  Later 
in the forecast period, a blocking mid-level high pressure system 
develops to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This will cause 
Margot to move rather slowly and perhaps erratically over the
subtropical Atlantic in the 4-5 day time frame.  The official track
forecast is fairly close to the previous NHC prediction and
generally follows the multi-model TVCN consensus solution.
 
Global models indicate that the upper-level tropospheric flow over
Margot should be conducive for some more strengthening during the
next 36 hours or so, with diffluent anticyclonic winds aloft over
the system.  The official intensity forecast is about the same as
the previous one and remains close to the model consensus.  The
statistical-dynamical guidance DSHIPS suggests that the hurricane
could become a little stronger than shown here.  Later in the
period, increasing shear and cooler ocean waters will likely cause
a weakening trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 28.0N  39.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 29.7N  39.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 31.8N  40.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 33.4N  41.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 34.6N  41.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 35.6N  41.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 36.5N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 37.3N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 38.5N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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