ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 Margot is producing small, intermittent bursts of convection near its partially exposed low-level center this morning. An ASCAT pass over the western portion of the circulation from last night showed that the winds within the max wind band have decreased by about 10-15 kt from 24 h ago, with peak vectors slightly above 50 kt. These data and the current satellite presentation indicate Margot is likely no longer a hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which remains above the highest available satellite intensity estimates. The tropical storm is drifting east-southeastward (115/3 kt) within weak steering currents, as a mid-level ridge continues to build over the north Atlantic. Margot is forecast to make a clockwise loop while it pivots around this ridge during the next couple of days. The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly broader loop that is consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids. By early next week, the ridge is forecast to become oriented to the east and south of Margot, and the cyclone should turn northward and then eastward within the flow between this feature and mid-latitude westerlies. There is greater uncertainty in the long-range track forecast given mixed signals in the global guidance as to whether Margot gets fully caught in the westerlies (GFS) or stays farther south and continues to meander over the central Atlantic (ECMWF). For now, the NHC forecast is held near the simple consensus aids. Margot is likely to continue weakening during the next couple of days while it meanders over its own cool wake of sub-26C SSTs in an increasingly dry and stable airmass. By Sunday, it could briefly encounter slightly warmer waters while moving westward, but the upper-level winds do not appear very conducive for much strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest Margot could struggle at times to sustain enough organized convection to remain a tropical cyclone. While the guidance suite suggests some minor intensity fluctuations are possible during this period, the NHC intensity forecast remains steady between 48-96 h in agreement with the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 36.7N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN