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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
 
Margot continues to produce small bursts of convection near the 
estimated low-level center location.  Microwave imagery from 0923 
UTC showed some fragmented curved bands in the northeastern quadrant 
of the storm.  Around 1200 UTC, satellite-derived surface winds 
measured the eastern portion of the circulation and revealed peak 
winds of 44 kt and a significant expansion of tropical-storm-force 
winds to the north.  Based on these data, and subjective and 
objective satellite estimates, the intensity is lowered to a 
possibly generous 55 kt.

The tropical storm is drifting southeastward (135/4 kt) around a 
building mid-level ridge over the northern Atlantic.  Margot is 
expected to move in a clockwise loop around the ridge during the 
next couple of days or so.  The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly 
broader loop that lies between the previous forecast and the various 
multi-model consensus aids.  By Monday, Margot should turn northward 
and then eastward as it moves around the periphery of the ridge.  
The model guidance at days 4 and 5 has a large spread in the 
along-track position (the forward speed) of Margot and therefore, 
the track forecast has greater-than-average uncertainty.  The 
official prediction lies between the previous forecast and the 
simple consensus aids at those times.

Margot is expected to continue to gradually weaken during the next 
couple of days as the vertical wind shear increases and the cyclone 
moves into an increasingly dry and stable airmass.  Simulated 
satellite imagery from global models shows periodic bursts of 
convection through day 4, and the storm is expected to become 
extratropical by the end of the forecast period.  While the official 
forecast shows Margot's intensity holding steady between 48-96 h, 
some minor fluctuations are possible during this time. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 36.3N  38.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 35.8N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 35.1N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 34.6N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 34.8N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 35.6N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 37.0N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 39.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 39.6N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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