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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023
 
Margot's satellite presentation has changed little since the 
previous advisory. A timely ASCAT-B overpass revealed peak winds of 
around 50 kt, and a rather expansive wind field over the northern 
semicircle of the storm.  Since there is typically some 
undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity 
remains 55 kt for this advisory.  This intensity is also in line 
with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 or 55 kt. 

Margot is moving south-southwestward at about 4 kt. The tropical 
storm should turn southwestward to westward during the next day or 
so as it completes a clockwise loop to the south of a mid-level 
ridge.  By early next week, the ridge should continue to slide 
eastward allowing Margot to turn northward, and then east- 
northeastward later in the period.  The track guidance has again 
trended toward a more southern and slower solution near the end of 
the period, and the official forecast has been adjusted 
accordingly. 

Northerly vertical wind shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, 
and dry air entrainment are expected to cause gradual weakening 
during the next couple of days.  Margot may struggle to produce 
organized deep convection in a couple of days, but an approaching 
mid-latitude trough may aid in at least a continuation of convective 
bursts keeping Margot a tropical cyclone.  By day 4, Margot is 
forecast to be post-tropical as simulated satellite imagery from the 
global models suggest the system will become devoid of convection 
after that time. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 35.5N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 35.0N  38.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 34.4N  40.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 34.6N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 35.3N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 36.9N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 38.6N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 38.5N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0000Z 38.2N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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