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Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212023
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

The area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea that the 
NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a 
well-defined circulation. Convection is well-organized and has 
persisted for over 12 hours, thus the disturbance is upgraded to 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One. Scatterometer satellite data from a 
few hours ago indicate that the intensity is around 25 kt. This is 
also confirmed by the most recent Dvorak estimates provided by 
TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is estimated at an uncertain 280/4. The tropical 
depression is on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, 
which should keep it on a generally westward track over the next few 
days. On this track, this system will be making landfall in southern 
Nicaragua later this evening or tonight. 

The tropical depression is in a favorable environment with low 
wind shear values and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, 
no strengthening is forecast since the depression is expected to 
move inland soon. The depression will weaken quickly over Nicaragua 
and dissipation is likely to occur tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions 
of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading 
into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in 
areas of higher terrain.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 11.6N  83.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 12.0N  84.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi
 
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