ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 The nocturnal convective bloom persists along the eastern semicircle of Hone this morning. Deep convection obscured the low level circulation center (LLCC) through most of the night, with the LLCC now emerging from the western edge of the cold cloud cover. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values ranged from 2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 32 kt and, although a few points were rain-flagged, ASCAT-C showed enough winds in the 30 to 32 kt range within the northeast quadrant to justify bumping Hone's initial intensity to 35 kt for this forecast cycle, making this system a tropical storm again. It seems that Hone's forward motion slowed significantly just as the convective bloom obscured the LLCC last evening, causing uncertainty as to what initial motion to assign. With the partial re-emergence of the LLCC from the western edge of cold cloud cover over the past hour, confidence in an initial motion of 315 degrees at 3 kt is higher than it would have been previously. Forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Global models show Hone's LLCC and an upper low less than 300 nm to its north becoming well-aligned in the next 24 hours as the upper feature drifts south, drawing the LLCC toward it. Afterward, the merged system will move slowly west northwestward. Because almost all track guidance wants to pull Hone almost due north initially, in contrast to current motion to the northwest, the forecast track is just to the left of the envelope through 24 hours, with little change made in the track forecast through then. The forecast track from 36 hours through 60 hours was adjusted noticeably to the right to keep it within the guidance envelope, mostly following HWRF, and creating a more pronounced kink in the track at 48 hours as guidance depicts the newly-aligned system transitioning from a west northwest track to an almost due north track. Beyond 72 hours, the forecast track once again closely mirrors the previous one. The environment that Hone will encounter offers far less shear and continued marginally favorable sea surface temperatures over the next 24 to 48 hours, and Hone is forecast to slowly strengthen during this time. Except for HAFS, which still calls for stronger intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within this envelope, close to TVCN. Hone's intensity will peak by 72 hours at 50 kt, then slowly decrease afterward as it travels across the western North Pacific. After passing south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the International Dateline late Sunday night Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.5N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN