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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023
 
Adrian is getting better organized on satellite imagery, which is
indicative of strengthening.  Convective banding is becoming more
defined, primarily over the southern portion of the circulation, and
a CDO feature is starting to develop near/over the center.
Upper-level anticyclonic outflow is becoming established, albeit
slightly restricted to the north of the system.  Microwave imagery
shows a mid-level eye-like feature.  The current intensity is set at
50 kt, which is a above the subjective Dvorak estimates and close to
the latest objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.
 
The storm is within an environment of fairly low vertical shear, in
a moist mid-level air mass, and over 28-29 deg C SSTs.  Based on
the rapid intensification (RI) indices, i.e. SHIPS-RII and DTOPS,
there is a significant chance of RI during the next day or so.  The
official intensity forecast shows, perhaps conservatively, a 25-kt
increase over the next 24 hours.  Later in the forecast period, the
numerical guidance indicates some increase in shear and Adrian is
likely to move over somewhat cooler waters which should lead to
gradual weakening.  The official forecast is mostly above the
simple and corrected consensus intensity guidance.
 
The latest center fixes suggest some slowing of the forward speed,
which is now estimated to be 280/10 kt.  Over the next few days,
the mid-level ridge to the north of Adrian is forecast to gradually
weaken as it is eroded by a weak trough to the west of Baja
California.  This should result in a weakening of the steering
currents and a further decrease in the tropical cyclone's forward
motion.  The track model guidance shows a lot of spread near the
end of the forecast period so there is more than usual uncertainty
in the 4- and 5-day forecast locations.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 15.3N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 15.3N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.4N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 15.5N 110.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 15.6N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 15.8N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 16.1N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 16.6N 115.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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