ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
 
Adrian continues to strengthen this morning, with convective banding 
becoming well-defined and a CDO developing over the center with 
cloud tops of -80C to -90C. In addition, an upper-level 
anticyclonic outflow is becoming well established.  Subjective 
Dvorak estimates were DT 4.0/65-kt from SAB and DT 3.5/55-kt from 
TAFB. The latest objective intensity estimates were similar 57 kt 
from ADT and 54 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial 
ASCAT-B, but it likely did not capture the highest winds on the 
northeast side of Adrian's circulation. A blend of the subjective 
and objective intensity guidance supports an initial intensity of 
55 kt for this advisory.

The storm is within a favorable environment with low vertical wind 
shear, warm SSTs and a moist air mass.  Thus, further strengthening 
is expected, with Adrian likely to become a hurricane later today. 
Later in the forecast period, guidance indicates some increase in 
wind shear in about 3 days, and Adrian is likely to move over 
cooler SSTs towards the end of the forecast period.  These two 
factors should lead to gradual weakening. The official forecast is 
mostly above the consensus intensity guidance in the short-term, 
given the favorable environment and Adrian's current storm 
structure.

The latest center fixes show the cyclone continues to be moving 
westward at 270/8 kt.  Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge 
to the north of Adrian is forecast to gradually weaken as it is 
eroded by a weak trough to the west of Baja California. This should 
result in a weakening of the steering currents and a decrease in 
the tropical cyclone's forward motion.  The track model guidance 
shows a lot of spread near the end of the forecast period so there 
is more than usual uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast 
locations.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 15.3N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 15.4N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 15.8N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 16.2N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 16.6N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 17.1N 115.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Beven
 
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