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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Adrian's satellite presentation has shown little change in 
organization since earlier today.  Central convection has been 
waxing and waning, and the eye is not very well defined.  Some 
banding features are evident and the upper-level outflow is still a 
bit impeded to the north of the system.  Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates from both SAB and TAFB have not changed since the last 
advisory cycle, so the intensity estimate remains 70 kt. 

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Adrian 
should remain fairly low for the next day or so.  Therefore some 
additional strengthening is forecast in the short term.  By 48 
hours, increasing easterly shear, associated with an 
upper-tropospheric high building to the north of Adrian, is 
anticipated.  This, coupled with cooler ocean waters, should cause 
weakening.  The official intensity forecast is a blend of the 
statistical-dynamical guidance and the dynamical model consensus.

Adrian continues to plod slowly westward, or at about 280/5 kt.  A 
weak mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone 
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion until late 
in the forecast period.  In 4 to 5 days, the ridge weakens and 
Adrian's motion should slow even further.  Another factor in the 
track late in the period is the possible interaction of Adrian 
or its remnant low with another system to the east.  The details of 
this interaction are quite uncertain at this time, and the official 
track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 15.4N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.6N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 15.8N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.1N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 16.4N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 16.8N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 17.1N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 17.3N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 17.3N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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