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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
 
A ragged eye briefly emerged in visible satellite imagery today, but 
it has once again become obscured by the central dense overcast of 
Adrian. It appears that the hurricane is struggling with some drier 
mid-level air in the surrounding environment. A dry slot is wrapping 
around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and 
earlier SSMIS microwave data showed a weakness in the inner-core 
convection around the eyewall. The 18 UTC subjective Dvorak 
estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt, while the 
objective ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 65-70 kt range. A 
blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 75 kt 
for this advisory.
 
The vertical wind shear is forecast to gradually increase over 
Adrian during the next several days, which is expected to induce a 
weakening trend that is supported by all the available intensity 
guidance. The official NHC forecast remains near or just above the 
latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Based on the latest GFS and 
ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery, the updated NHC forecast 
shows Adrian becoming post-tropical at day 3, as it appears likely 
to lose all deep convection over cooler waters and within a drier 
and stronger shear environment. While the official forecast carries 
a remnant low through day 5, it could be near dissipation by the end 
of the period.

The track of Adrian today has been to the right of previous 
forecasts, and its initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. 
The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward 
during the next few days while being steered by a high-pressure 
ridge to its northeast. The updated NHC forecast has again been 
adjusted to the right of the previous one, and it generally lies 
between the TVCE and HCCA aids. As the shallow remnant low spins 
down later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn more 
westward within the low-level flow.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 16.4N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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