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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
 
After a brief hiatus, Adrian appears to once again be strengthening 
this evening.  An SSMI/S satellite pass at 2239 UTC showed an 
apparent dry air intrusion reaching the hurricane's core with a 
weakness in the convection to the north.  However, recent 
geostationary infrared imagery suggests the storm has recovered and 
an eye has emerged.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB 
were T5.0/90 kt and T4.5/77 kt, respectively.  Therefore, the 
initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt to represent a blend 
of these estimates.
 
Adrian has a short window of conducive environmental and oceanic 
conditions that could lead to some additional intensification.  
Beginning in about 12 h or so, easterly deep-layer wind shear is 
expected to increase while sea-surface temperatures along the 
forecast track cool.  These conditions should induce a weakening 
trend.  The NHC intensity prediction is above the all of the model 
guidance in the short-term forecast, but follows the consensus aids 
beyond 24 h.  Adrian is still expected to become a post-tropical 
remnant low by day 3.

The initial motion of the hurricane is estimated to be northwestward 
or 305/7 kt.  The storm is still expected to move generally 
west-northwestward during the next few days around a ridge to its 
northeast.  The weaker, shallower vortex is then forecast to turn 
westward in the low-level trade winds.  As mentioned in previous 
advisories, the track forecast for Adrian has been shifting to the 
right and it has done so again for this cycle.  The latest official 
forecast is closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 16.7N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 17.1N 112.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.6N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 18.0N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 18.7N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 18.7N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0000Z 18.7N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0000Z 18.6N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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