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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
Until the last hour or so, Adrian had been maintaining a healthy
structure overnight. Its eye, which became more distinct around the
time of the prior advisory, has mostly remained intact, with a
convective ring of -65 to -70 C cold temperatures encircling it on
IR satellite. While there have not been any recent microwave
imagery, the earlier passes suggested Adrian's inner core had
contracted some, which is supported by overnight ASCAT data which
showed the wind radii had also contracted from yesterday. 0600 UTC
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB were T5.0/90 kt and
T4.5/77 kt from SAB. Meanwhile, objective intensity estimates from
ADT and SATCON have been hovering around 90 kt, with the
experimental D-MINT and D-PRINT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS a
bit under those values. The initial intensity this advisory will be
set at 85-kt as a compromise of the available subjective and
objective data, though recent satellite imagery has become more
ragged, suggesting Adrian is near its peak intensity.
 
Adrian's initial motion has bent a little more west-northwestward at
300/6 kt. This general west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue under the dominating influence of a mid-level ridge
centered to its north. However, as Adrian weakens, its steering will
become more influenced by the low-level trade wind flow which should
result in a gradual turn westward. The latest track guidance has not
changed much from the previous cycle and the NHC track continues to
lie near the reliable consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.
 
While I cannot preclude the possibility that Adrian intensifies a
little more in the short-term, it is more likely the hurricane is
near peak intensity given the recent satellite trends. Easterly
shear is also expected to gradually increase while the system
crosses the 26-C sea-surface temperature isotherm in about 24 hours.
A combination of these factors should ultimately induce a weakening
trend, and the latest NHC intensity guidance shows a faster rate of
weakening between 24-48 hours. Both the global and regional
hurricane models suggest Adrian will become devoid of convection
shortly thereafter, with the latest forecast now showing the system
becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 16.7N 111.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.1N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 18.5N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 18.8N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z 18.7N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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