ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The convective pattern associated with Beatriz has become more concentrated since the last advisory, with stronger convection near the center and more convective banding. Two ASCAT overpasses back around 04Z showed winds of 45-50 kt located about 20 n mi to the northeast of the center. Based on this data and the increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 50 kt. The initial motion is now 305/11 kt. During the next several days, a combination of a mid-level ridge to the north-northeast and Hurricane Adrian to the west should steer Beatriz generally northwestward. While the models generally agree with this scenario, there are important differences among them on how close Beatriz will get to the coast of Mexico. The GFS and the HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope and keep the center a significant distance offshore. On the other hand, the ECMWF, the UKMET, and the Canadian models all bring the center onshore in western Mexico in 24-36 h. The early part of the new track forecast keeps the center just offshore of the coast through 36 h as a blend of the previous forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. However, any motion to the right of the track would result in Beatriz making landfall in Mexico. The remainder of the forecast track shows Beatriz slowing its forward motion and turning more toward the west in response to mid-level ridging to the north, with the center passing south or near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. Beatriz is in an area of light- to moderate northeasterly shear and over very warm sea surface temperatures. Based on these conditions, and on the inner core convective structure seen earlier in 37-GHz microwave imagery, steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 h as long as the center stays offshore. Beatriz is expected to become a hurricane later today and maintain hurricane strength through 48 h. After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should lead to weakening, with the system currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 120 h. If the center moves inland over Mexico, the mountainous terrain should cause rapid weakening, and Beatriz, if it survives, would be much weaker than currently forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane later today, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas later today and on Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.3N 101.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 21.0N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 22.1N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN