ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show that an eye is forming. A special classification from TAFB yielded an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up to 4.0. Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity. Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and northern Mexico. However, as is often the case with cyclones paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt the coast or move inland at some point. The NHC track forecast continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do bring the system inland and show dissipation. If Beatriz survives the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the southwestern U.S. If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes. On the other hand, if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would likely cause rapid weakening. Assuming survival during the next 36 hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3. Based on the latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas later today and on Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN