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Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Beatriz 
a couple of hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds 
of 84 kt and SFMR surface winds around 70 kt, and based on that 
data, Beatriz's initial intensity is 75 kt.  Since that time, the 
eye which had become apparent in satellite imagery has become 
obscured, and it's possible that the hurricane's structure is 
beginning to be affected by the nearby mountainous terrain of 
Mexico.

Beatriz continues to move northwestward, or 305/11 kt, and that 
general motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while 
the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level 
ridge located over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.  
On this trajectory, Beatriz will continue to graze the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next 24 hours, but any wobble to the 
right of the forecast track could bring the center inland during 
that time.  If Beatriz survives the next 36 hours, another 
mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build over the southwestern 
United States, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and 
then westward and slow down on days 2 and 3.  There is a fair 
amount of model spread during that period, and the updated NHC 
track forecast is closest to the GFS, TVCE, and HCCA aids, nudged a 
bit to the right of the previous forecast.

Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next 24 hours 
if its center remains over water, but the mountainous terrain could 
cause some slow weakening regardless.  After 36 hours, increasing 
shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident 
atmosphere are expected to contribute to faster weakening as 
Beatriz moves away from west-central Mexico.  Most of the global 
models, with the exception of the GFS, dissipate the circulation by 
day 3, so the new NHC forecast now shows Beatriz degenerating into 
a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation occurring by day 4.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next day or 
so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm 
surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through 
Saturday afternoon.  A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for 
portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western 
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of 
Sinaloa and Durango.  These rains could lead to life-threatening 
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 17.8N 103.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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