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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024
 
Carlotta continues to show signs of organization this evening.  
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown regular bursts of deep 
convection with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C near the 
center of the storm.  Microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 also 
revealed decent structure of the low-level center.  Dvorak satellite 
estimates from TAFB and SAB agree Carlotta's intensity is 45 kt, 
and the initial intensity has been increased to match these 
estimates.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  Carlotta is 
expected to gradually turn more westward in about a day or so as a 
ridge builds over the southwestern United States.  By Sunday, the 
storm is expected to turn back to the west-northwest and slow as it 
reaches a weakness in the ridge.  The latest official track forecast 
has once again shifted slightly north from the previous forecast and 
has a slightly quicker along-track speed.

Signs are pointing towards Carlotta rapidly intensifying over the 
next day or so.  The storm is moving over warm waters, and the 
environmental shear is expected to remain weak.  Statistical model 
guidance indices show between a 30 to 40 percent chance of rapid 
intensification (RI) in the next 24 h.  This model guidance, paired 
with the latest structural information provided by satellite 
imagery, are the basis for now explicitly forecasting RI in the next 
24 h.  This period of RI could be interrupted in a day or so by an 
increase in vertical wind shear, though the global models differ in 
evolution of upper-level winds, making the intensity forecast 
somewhat uncertain.  The latest intensity forecast lies close to the 
corrected consensus aid, HCCA, and the peak has been increased to 90 
kt at 60 hours.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.6N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.2N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.0N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 18.0N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 18.1N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 18.7N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 19.4N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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