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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024
 
Carlotta has continued to strengthen tonight. A series of earlier 
SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show that the storm has 
become better organized, with deep convection wrapping around the 
center and a formative mid-level eye becoming apparent in the 89-GHz 
channel. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer data is available to 
better assess the size or intensity of Carlotta. TAFB and SAB 
provided T-3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak estimates, while the UW-CIMSS 
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 41-55 kt. The 
initial intensity of the storm is raised to 50 kt based on a blend 
of these estimates.
 
A ridge over the southwestern United States is steering Carlotta
west-northwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion is
expected to continue today. As the ridge strengthens to the north of
the storm, Carlotta is forecast to turn westward on Friday and
continue on that heading through the weekend. The track models are
in good agreement through the first few days of the forecast period,
with increased spread noted thereafter in the deterministic models
and global ensembles. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly
to the right of the previous track and is a bit faster in the longer
range, following the latest multi-model consensus aid trends.
 
Very warm SSTs and relatively low deep-layer shear appear favorable 
for significant to possibly rapid intensification of Carlotta during 
the next couple of days. Given that the microwave data suggest an 
inner core could be solidifying, Carlotta seems likely to take 
advantage of these favorable conditions and is expected to become a 
hurricane later today. The NHC forecast is very similar to the 
previous one, remaining on the high end of the intensity guidance 
envelope early in the forecast period and showing continued 
strengthening through early Saturday. The forecast track brings the 
storm over gradually cooler waters from 72-120 h, which should 
induce weakening by early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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