ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024 Recent scatterometer data indicate the center of Carlotta remains embedded within a small central dense overcast as deep convection has persisted near and over the center tonight. Satellite images indicate the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the western part of the circulation, perhaps the result of some westerly shear. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 54-65 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial tropical-storm-force wind field of Carlotta has been made slightly larger than previous estimates based on the scatterometer winds. Carlotta is moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but a turn toward the west is expected later today as a ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through early next week. The model guidance has once again trended northward this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction, mainly in the 72-120 h time frame. Based on the multi-model consensus aids, the updated prediction is also slightly faster than the previous one during the latter half of the forecast period. The environmental and oceanic conditions are generally favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there remains some dry air in the surrounding environment that has at times disrupted Carlotta's organization in recent days given its small size. Assuming the inner core structure has improved based on recent convective trends, additional strengthening seems likely during the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, generally between the HFIP corrected consensus and the stronger HAFS-A/B regional models. Since Carlotta is a small cyclone, it could be susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations. The storm is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in about 60-72 h. Thereafter, weakening is forecast while Carlotta encounters cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and decreasing mid-level moisture. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN