ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Convection associated with an area of low pressure located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has noticeably increased since last night. Earlier last-light visible satellite imagery showed a well-defined low-level circulation before deep convection formed and persisted directly over it. The system therefore meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is a conservative 30 kt, based on the satellite trends and a subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB of T2.5. The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds which are forecast to increase during the next few days. The system is also crossing over a gradient of sea surface temperatures towards cooler waters. Given these marginal conditions and global model guidance it is likely the depression will be short-lived. The official intensity forecast shows the cyclone gradually weakening, becoming a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipating by 60 h. However, some models suggest it could weaken and dissipate sooner. The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the depression with this general motion for the next day or so. Afterward, the shallow vortex is expected to turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the model guidance, which is generally in good agreement, and closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 16.1N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 16.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN