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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

While the overall convective activity has increased some this 
afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly 
occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The 
wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago, 
stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger 
monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent 
scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance 
continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt. 

Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest, 
with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to 
continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the 
southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that 
tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance 
shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with 
a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The 
NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast, 
once again close to the multi-model consensus.

Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current 
elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue 
for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles, 
the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24 
h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that 
time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing 
convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking 
Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should 
dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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