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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
 
Satellite data reveal that compact Dora has rapidly strengthened. A 
small, symmetric eye has emerged and warmed during the past several 
hours, surrounded by a solid ring of very deep convection with cloud 
tops colder than -70 to -75 deg C. As a result, the latest satellite 
intensity estimates have significantly risen since earlier today. 
Based on a blend of the 00 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T6.0/115 
kt) and SAB (T5.5/102 kt), the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt 
for this advisory, which marks a 45-kt increase in intensity over 
the past 24 hours. Dora is now the second major hurricane of the 
season in the eastern North Pacific basin.

Dora continues to move westward at 260/14 kt. The track forecast 
reasoning is unchanged, as a well-established ridge to the north of 
Dora will keep the hurricane moving quickly on a heading just south 
of due west for the next several days. The latest track guidance 
remains in very good agreement, and overall confidence is above 
average on this component of the forecast. The updated NHC track is 
very similar to the previous one, generally falling in between the 
HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids.

Given its impressive satellite structure and well-formed inner core, 
some additional near-term strengthening seems likely tonight as Dora 
moves over SSTs greater than 28C and within a low deep-layer shear 
environment. The updated peak intensity of 125 kt lies just above 
the consensus aids but below the latest HAFS-A/B runs. The easterly 
shear is forecast to increase on Thursday and into Friday while Dora 
moves over somewhat cooler SSTs, which is expected to bring an end 
to its intensification and induce some weakening of the small 
hurricane. However, the deep-layer shear diagnosed in both the GFS 
and ECMWF SHIPS guidance diminishes between 60-120 h, and the 
forecast track keeps Dora over SSTs of 26.5-27C through the end of 
the period. Thus, the official forecast does not show as much 
weakening and follows the multi-model consensus during this time. 
Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast since the 
compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity fluctuations.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 15.2N 116.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 15.0N 119.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 14.3N 125.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 13.9N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 13.2N 134.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 12.9N 141.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 13.0N 149.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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