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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
 
Dora remains an impressive major hurricane this evening. 
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures 
surrounding the pinhole eye have cooled to -75 to -80 degrees C. The 
initial intensity for this advisory has been increased slightly to 
115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane continues to move westward at 260/15 kt.  A 
well-established ridge to the north of the storm is expected to 
maintain this general motion for the next several days.  The most 
recent track guidance is well-clustered and only minor adjustments 
have been made to the latest official track forecast, which still 
lies between the HCCA and TVCE multi-model consensus aids.

Model guidance suggests Dora is nearing its peak intensity.  The 
cyclone is currently over very warm waters (greater than 28 degrees 
C) and in a environment with light-to-moderate vertical wind shear.  
However, global models predict the wind shear will increase during 
the next 24-48 h and induce a weakening trend.  Between 60 h and 
until the end of the forecast period, the wind shear should relax 
again over the storm as it remains over warm waters (between 26-27 
degrees C).  The updated intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory prediction and shows a peak intensity of 125 kt in 
12 h, which is above all model guidance.  At 24 h, the forecast is 
blended back into various model consensus guidance and shows gradual 
weakening.  Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast 
since the compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity 
fluctuations.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 15.0N 118.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 14.4N 123.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 14.2N 127.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 13.8N 130.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 13.5N 133.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 13.3N 136.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 12.9N 143.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 12.9N 150.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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