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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023
 
The satellite presentation of Dora has degraded since the last 
advisory.  The eye is cloud filled and the outflow on the eastern 
portion of the semicircle appears restricted.  The initial intensity 
has been lowered to a conservative 115 kt based on a blend of the T- 
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
Dora is moving westward at 265/16 kt and the track forecast
reasoning is unchanged.  A well-established ridge to the north of
the storm is forecast to build westward and keep Dora on the same
general trajectory for entire forecast period.  The latest model
consensus has shifted slightly northward, so the new forecast lies
just north of the previous advisory prediction.
 
Based on the current satellite presentation, Dora may be
experiencing the effects of easterly vertical wind shear and thus,
beginning its weakening trend.  Moderate shear is expected to
continue for the next 24 h and the intensity guidance suggests Dora
should continue to weaken.  By 36-48 h, the shear is forecast to
decrease and the forecast track takes the hurricane over relatively
warm sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees C.  These conditions
should allow for Dora's intensity to remain steady for a couple of
day.  Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and 5, following the
overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora is expected to
remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.1N 125.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.9N 127.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 13.7N 130.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 13.5N 133.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 13.2N 136.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 13.0N 140.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 12.8N 144.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 12.7N 151.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 13.0N 159.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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