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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023
 
Deep convection continues to burst within Dora's eyewall, and due
to the resulting convective canopy, there have not been any hints
of an eye during the past few hours.  In fact, a recent 0052 UTC 
SSMIS microwave pass doesn't show an eye either, but instead a 
compact curved band wrapping into the center.  TAFB and SAB both 
used the Dvorak embedded center pattern and provided consensus 
estimates of T5.0/5.0, which closely matches the latest objective 
ADT and AiDT numbers from UW-CIMSS.  Dora's initial intensity is 
therefore set at 90 kt.
 
Dora's motion remains westward at 265/16 kt.  The low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen in a
couple of days, which should result in Dora moving faster toward the
west while it passes well to the south of Hawaii early next week.
The track guidance has been tightly clustered and unwavering, and
the new NHC forecast is merely an update of the previous prediction,
lying close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
 
It appears that some moderate mid-level westerly shear (beneath the
outflow layer) may develop in Dora's environment in a couple of
days as a result of the strengthening low- to mid-level steering
flow.  The thermodynamic environment is not ideal with (1) sea
surface temperatures along Dora's forecast path only marginally
warm at 26-27C, (2) the hurricane about to move through a more
stable environment during the next 48 hours, followed by (3) a
drier mid-level environment after 48 hours.  Since the worst of
these conditions doesn't appear to overlap in time and space,
Dora's intensity is forecast to decrease gradually or be relatively
steady with some fluctuations for much of the next 5 days.  The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous forecast
with the latest HCCA corrected-consensus model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 13.7N 130.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.4N 135.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 13.1N 139.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 12.9N 142.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 12.8N 146.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 12.7N 150.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 12.7N 158.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 13.4N 165.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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