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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

The increase in Dora's organization that started just before the 
last advisory has continued during the last several hours, with a 
cloud-filled eye becoming more persistent in a central dense 
overcast with some cloud top temperatures colder than -80C.  The 
various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 95-120 kt 
range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly 
conservative 100 kt.
 
Dora continues moving westward or 265/16 kt along the southern side 
of a deep-layer ridge to the north.  This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while 
it passes well south of Hawaii early next week.  The track guidance 
is still tightly clustered and has changed little since the 
previous advisory, and the new track forecast is almost the same as 
the previous forecast.

The easterly shear that occurred yesterday seems to be decreasing, 
with that decrease probably allowing the re-intensification.  
During the next 48-72 h, the center of Dora should be in a 
light-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26-27C.  
While there is still some spread, the intensity guidance 
indicates that the current intensification should end in the next 
6-12 h, followed by a gradual weakening.  This part of the 
intensity forecast follows the guidance and is a little above the 
intensity consensus.  After 72 h, the hurricane is expected to move 
over increasing sea surface temperatures, but also move into a 
drier air mass.  In addition, some westerly vertical shear could 
develop by 120 h.  However, the guidance spread becomes quite 
large, with the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models showing a 
significantly higher intensity than the dynamical models.  This 
part of the intensity forecast will show a slow weakening, but will 
lean more towards the SHIPS models than the dynamical models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 13.3N 133.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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