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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six 
hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central 
dense overcast.  The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the 
initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the 
subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.

As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving 
westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north. 
This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days 
or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it 
passes well south of Hawaii early next week.  There has been little 
change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new 
forecast track is again almost identical to the old track.

Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is 
currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly 
responsible for the current intensification.  The intensity 
guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost 
over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it 
underestimated how strong the storm would get today.  Based on the 
current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast 
calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h, 
followed by some weakening.  After 48 h, while Dora should remain 
over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h, 
it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of 
upper-level convergence.  These factors should lead to continued 
gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in 
the guidance on how much weakening will occur.  The early part of 
the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity 
guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the 
SHIPS model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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