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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023
 
Dora remains a well-organized and very symmetric hurricane.
Dvorak-based intensity estimates are a bit lower than they were
six hours ago, due to marginally warmer cloud tops surrounding
Dora's clear eye, so the intensity has been lowered very slightly to
120 kt.
 
Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two 
while the small hurricane moves over relatively warm water with 
negligible environmental wind shear. By mid-week, Dora will begin to 
encounter a drier surrounding environment. Weakening is forecast, 
but potentially at a very slow rate if Dora maintains its 
annular-like structure. Conversely, because Dora is a small 
hurricane, it could be subject to relatively rapid intensity changes 
that can't be reliably predicted. By the end of the forecast period, 
while there is agreement that Dora will be somewhat weaker than it 
is now, the reliable intensity guidance ranges from near 50 kt 
(HWRF) to almost 100 kt (DSHP), highlighting the uncertainty in the 
forecast. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the 
model consensus, similar to the previous advisory.
 
The track forecast is more straightforward. A ridge to the north of
Dora will steer the hurricane westward at a similar speed for the 
next several days, keeping it well south of Hawaii. Virtually no 
change was made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.
 
Dora has reached the central Pacific basin and the next advisory
will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 2100
UTC/1100 AM HST. Users will not need to go exploring for future
information on Dora, which will continue to be available on the web 
at hurricanes.gov.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 13.0N 140.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 12.8N 142.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 12.7N 146.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 12.4N 150.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 12.3N 154.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 12.3N 157.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 12.5N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 13.5N 169.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 15.0N 176.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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