ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 500 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023 Dora has begun to slowly gain latitude this afternoon, as forecast, but has strengthened once again within a low-shear and marginally warm sea surface temperature environment. Satellite presentation has improved from late this morning, with a clearly defined 8 nm wide eye and a symmetrical central structure. The central dense overcast feature around the core is less than 100 nm wide, giving Dora an increasingly annular appearance. This intense but compact system is only about 240 nm wide from north to south, including all banding features. All three fix agencies derived subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.5, corresponding to 127 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS ADT is 122 kt. Given these derived intensity values, Dora is given an initial intensity of 125 kt for this advisory, keeping her as a solid category 4 tropical cyclone. Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the last two advisories. Like before, track guidance remains remarkably tight through tau 72, with spread only becoming significant at tau 96 and beyond, long after this system has passed out of the basin into the western North Pacific. The larger synoptic environment around Dora remains unchanged. Strong ridging north of Dora, and the westward migration of this ridging, accounts for this system's prolonged westward movement. However, the slow and recent increase in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching the southwest flank of this ridging. Dora is forecast to continue gaining latitude and assume a northwest motion Thursday and Friday. The forecast track, closely following the previous track and TVCN model consensus, continues to become more northerly after Dora passes west of the date line. Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt through tau 60. With 00Z ECMWF SHIPS showing almost no Dora intensity drop through tau 24, this advisory will only slowly weaken this system through tau 36, with more pronounced weakening introduced afterwards as Dora gains latitude and shear increases. The 00Z GFS SHIPS shows a similar slow weakening trend through tau 24, with more rapid weakening afterwards. As before, both SHIPS versions keep Dora stronger at all tau than most intensity model guidance. However, given that Dora insists on strengthening within the environment it is in, forecasting a slower weakening trend, at least initially, seems reasonable. Dora will eventually weaken to a post-tropical/remnant low, but after tau 120. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 11.8N 167.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 170.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 13.1N 174.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 14.4N 177.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 179.1E 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 16.1N 176.2E 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 16.8N 173.2E 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 18.1N 168.0E 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 20.7N 164.2E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN