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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023
 
After weakening overnight, a well-defined eye of Hurricane Dora 
briefly reemerged around and just after agencies conducted Dvorak 
fixes. HFO, JTWC, and SAB all found a current intensity of 5.5/102 
kt, but given the recent slight improvement in satellite 
presentation, the initial intensity was held at 105 kt for this 
advisory. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 285/17 kt. The forecast 
track remains in the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope 
through the next two days. During this time, Dora will move toward 
the west-northwest and gradually slow its forward motion, as it 
travels along the southwest flank of the subtropical high far to 
the north. Guidance spread increases beyond 48 hours, when Dora 
will approach the end of the ridge and loses more speed of forward 
motion. The official track was altered little from the prior 
package and is within the middle of the guidance envelope near the 
TVCN.

With relatively warm water of 28-29C and light vertical wind shear, 
only slow weakening is forecast through the next 24 hours, 
especially given Dora's history of exceeding intensity predictions. 
At about 36 hours and beyond, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS show a steady 
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, and steady weakening 
is expected. The intensity guidance shows considerable spread 
during this time of steady weakening, and the forecast closely 
follows the consensus through 72 hours and remains slightly more 
aggressive than the consensus beyond.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 12.7N 173.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.6N 175.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.9N 178.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 16.2N 178.8E   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 17.2N 176.5E   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 17.9N 174.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 18.4N 171.8E   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 19.6N 167.8E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 21.9N 164.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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